New comments cannot be posted and votes cannot be cast, More posts from the SpaceXLounge community. We are preparing for the potential reusable future but we want to see a clear business case behind it. F9 has engine out capability (can switch from reusable mode to expendable mode to get payload to orbit), rated for flying astronauts, can do static fires, been able to inspect first stages (and soon fairings) after they've done their job to check for issues... F9 will also have the opportunity to fly many more times and A6 - which has the potential the prove out its reliability sooner.
This is convenient for large constellations because you can start them with only a few launches. None of the big constellations has taken off yet. As of today, this is not yet clear. Do you foresee moving further in this direction in the future? We had production people involved in the process from Day One to secure not only that the design will work — which is obviously a must — but also for it to be a product, which is easy to produce, which is not too complex. A. I can confirm that we are well on track with the development of Ariane 6. What are the advantages and the drawbacks of reusability? In turn, this will hurt Europe's ability to support a stronger presence in the larger NewSpace competition. We can launch more then 50 satellites in one go, which is not feasible with Ariane 5. With the new Ariane 6 slated to enter service in 2020, ArianeGroup promises to cut per-kilogram launch cost by 40 to 50 percent compared to Ariane 5. The response to Ariane 6 in the market is very positive. Hence the Callisto/Prometheus decisions recently. How do you achieve that? What has been quite new to us is the use of collaborative engineering. Ariane 6 will be available in two versions depending on the required performance: A62 with two strap-on boosters, and A64 with four. A. Blue Origin MIGHT change that. Are the potential customers ready to pay the right price for such a service? Wow is ArianeGroup responding to this trend? The temptation for individual countries will be to say "we're glad to have launch autonomy from the US and Russia, but while we've got it, lets use cheap launches with the US".
Q. So all in all, that is a big problem and leaders in the European space sector are aware of this. Q. They will use it for government missions, but then Arianespace is barred from most US gov missions too. Godart said that while Ariane 6 reflects changes in the current satellite market and was specifically designed to respond to the advent of small satellite mega-constellations, the company keeps their mind open about a possible future dedicated small satellite micro-launcher and would consider exploring rocket stage reusability once persuaded about a sound business case. Welcome to /r/SpaceXLounge, a place for relaxed and laid-back discussion about SpaceX! For the time being we are working on studies. They can charge whatever they like as long as they are less than the next closest vendor.
Nothing is going to happen to launch prices or elimination of inefficient competition, until at least 1 other vendor comes online offering the cost and availability benefits that reuse provides.
The reasoning being that we need our own launcher for defense related payloads.
A. Any supposed payload-secrecy argument just won't stand up because an accompanied secret payload just needs to be followed by its own integration team. Press J to jump to the feed. Is the market for micro-launchers big enough? You want to have a reusable launcher but with a good reliability so you need to take that into consideration. The pressure for lower prices is one of the major driving forces in the launcher market. The true SpaceX competitive advantage will come with BFS. It’s a bit too early to properly assess how big is the market and what can be done through ridesharing on bigger launchers.
How is Ariane 6 going to be more reliable than Falcon 9? We would obviously do that if we believed that there is a market. They won't be getting customers if their fees are higher than Arianespace and ULA. I think it’s all an advantage for SpaceX because it gives them more time of being able to charge more and not having to reduce launch cost. If Ariane 6 is able to maintain the same reliability as Ariane 5 then this should match SpaceX pricing with arguably better reliability. We have integrated project teams with our industry partners, showing a great level of transparency — not only within the ArianeGroup companies but also with our supply chain. What is your take on small satellite launchers? Addendum : An insufficiently competitive Ariane 6 will drain a lot of Europe's already low public space resources (compared to the US and China). In the past, we would develop the launcher, then we would launch it and then we would go into the production. A. The customers tell us that this is the right product. It is not very cheap in our view because you don’t want to impair reliability. Also, ridesharing is something very doable with Ariane 6. Also your customers would expect a discount if they fly on a reused rocket because otherwise they would choose to fly on a new rocket. Second, no, because (as others have said) there's a need for Europe to keep some sensitive stuff out of everyone else's grubby paws. We have asked the customers what type of product they would like to see. level 2
From Day One, the launcher is designed with production in mind. Ariane 5 was designed in the 1980s and a lot of technological innovation has happened since. I would argue that there also nedds to be higher launch demand as well. You expect to start operating Ariane 6 in 2020. We have a highly flexible product and we are much cheaper than on Ariane 5, which is one of the reasons why we have gone in that direction. SpaceX is not passing on huge cost savings for reused boosters to their customers yet. manned flight and return payload options with Dragon 2. establish a customer relationship as a regular SpaceX user in view of BFR. First, no, because launch cost isn't the primary choice driver for very expensive payloads. Q. Q. If they save 50 million in subsidies per launch compared to Ariane 5, it will take 72 launches to amortize the development cost. Paying over the odds for sick reliability isn't irrational. The costs of the refurbishment are likewise significant. The question is what would be the launch price, what would be the cost of the development, what would be the potential margin that you can realize. Third, no, because the big customers like to have a healthy clutch of launch service providers, so stuff is spread around. The operators are saying that they are interested but that’s not enough. We have completely revisited the supply chain for Ariane 6 and we are trying to always choose the best-in-class companies to work with. Rocket stage reusability is a topic we are looking into on a study basis. Also those prices assume than a F9/FH launch will not be any cheaper by the time A6 starts flying. According to Wikipedia the project cost for Ariane 6 is €3.6 billion. What reaction have you seen in the market so far? While in 2019, the maiden orbital flight had been planned for 2020, by May 2020, the planned initial launch date had been delayed until 2021. As I understand it, Ariane 6 is all about reduced cost per launch compared to Ariane 5. At the end of the day, once you have made the mathematics of all of this, there still must be a clear business case. It’s the most reliable launcher in the market with 81 successful consecutive launches.
We have passed external and internal reviews and we are now preparing for positioning Ariane 6 in the market. Arianespace intends to slash the cost of launching the Ariane 6 by around 40 percent versus the Ariane 5. And, depending on their cadence capability, they can charge whatever they want, to the right customer that wants a payload up immediately. Q. We have signed a contract with ESA to develop a reusable first-stage engine called Prometheus, which will be 10 times cheaper than the current Vulcain engine. Also, as I said earlier, we aim to have cadences of 11 a year with Ariane 6. Nope because europe subsidizes it, even if it isn't making a profit. That means, a relatively low-cost disposable rocket can still be price-competitive with reusable Falcon 9. Then you have to refurbish the landed stage. Once fairing reuse and Block V are online - could reduce price to $40M for 5500kg to GTO and still make money (new stage 2 + refurb stage 1 and fairing + launch costs can't be more than $20M). It costs quite a lot of payload, which means that you can’t go with too-heavy passengers and you cannot go everywhere. a stable launch territory (lesser real risk of launch denial than in Kourou). Eric Berger - May 22, 2020 11:00 am UTC Another, he said, is about reusability. That enables you to have more efficient production and then you save cost. One of the big trends discussed in the launcher market is the increasing demand for small satellite launches and the availability of launch services for small satellite operators. They won’t lower prices to super low levels, even though they could, because all they need to do is undercut their competition by 20% or so and it’s a huge savings, plus they will have such a high launch rate that they will clear out their backlog and have a very short wait time for launch, almost more important than price for some customers. From Day One, we had the customers involved in the design and definition of this launcher. Remember that revenue from Falcon 9 launches will also pay for BFR. It is a debate among the industrial players, whether the market is there. We believe that the flexibility of Ariane 6 does address the needs of the small satellite market. Depending on the orbit, A62 is able to launch payloads of approximately 4000–7000 kg, whereas A64 is able to launch payloads of approximately 11 000–16 000 kg. Only the main European countries contributing to Ariane would have a reason to launch with them, so that's what: France, Germany, Italy and a couple more. We are open and transparent about our ideas and challenges and our suppliers are open about theirs. On the other hand, we are not giving up on Ariane 5. If you want a reusable launcher, you lose quite a lot of payload due to the fact that you need to bring your stage back down to land without crashing.
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